Hey That $30 Billion Loss is Really Good News

Here we have it, straight from Tim “Turbo Tax” Geithner’s staff:

“The real news is the projected loss came down to $30 billion from $44 billion,” Sperling said, noting that auto sales have improved ahead of what many analysts had forecast. The administration still holds out hope that if things improve, the administration could still recover more.

[From Obama administration predicts $30B loss on auto bailout | detnews.com | The Detroit News]

A few weeks ago I wrote about the extreme chutzpah that GM’s management displayed when attempting to portray paying back $6.7 of the nearly $60 billion in taxpayer money they received as a testament to their solid financial footing. Little did I know then that their message spin would look modest compared to the Treasury Department attempting to spin losing $30 billion as good news.

The other half of the pull quote above is also worth noting because Treasury official Sperling points out that auto sales have improved considerably better than forecast… uh yeah, that’s what happens when you give away $3 billion of taxpayer money to car buyers. We’ve gone from “hope” being a campaign slogan to a strategy… brilliant.

When the final version of history is written on $GM I hope it will read as a massive looting of bondholders and taxpayers for the benefit of the UAW.

Chrysler Blog, Probably Not a Good Time for “Conversation”

Chrysler has a blog and on it they posted a digital copy of that stupid “thank you America” ad they spent $100k of your money running. The comments on the post speak convincingly about the depth of anger felt by the vast majority, probably 98%, of people on this subject as evidenced by what they are posting.

“Hey Crysler! You’re not welcome. You took my hard earned tax dollars without congressional approval. This is not the time for a “thank you.” This would be a good time for a refund…and an apology. “

“Bob Nardelli – thanking Americans for stealing their money is NOT something to boast about on your website.”

“Obviously nothing has changed. Chrysler is still making stupid decisions by wasting its stolen taxpayer money on useless ads.”

GM’s Fastlane blog has a similar statement about the bridge loans but the comments are markedly more measured. I think this reflects a couple of factors, the first being that Fastlane is much more respected in the automotive world as a blog about cars on GM’s site, whereas the Chrysler blog is simply a marketing exercise. The distinction is subtle because technically both are marketing tools but the Fastlane blog has substance that is conspicuously lacking in the Chrysler blog.

The second factor is likely the anger about the ad that Chrysler ran, which show further tone deafness about the displeasure that the American public feels about these bailouts. Chrysler also has two other problems, Cerberus and Bob Nardelli. The former being a private equity firm represents to many people a symbol for why our global economy is in the shitter to begin with, and the latter is a reviled man in many corners for his outrageous severance package at Home Depot and also because he’s not a “car guy” so he is viewed as an interloper.

Chrysler would do well to shut down the blog at this point. There is no way the comments will turn positive and because they can’t whitewash them away, the comments only serve to reinforce the negativity surrounding this company.

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The Delicate Nature of Trust and Brands

If you look at what is going on in our global financial markets and many large business sectors (airlines and auto manufacturers in particular) the disease they are suffering from is a lack of trust among consumers.

The financial markets have witnessed wholesale capitulation by retail investors who understand that the market is functioning not on the basis of fundamental business strength and weakness, but at the mercy of large fund traders who are capable of moving any large stock 10% up or down on any given day irrespective of what the circumstances surrounding that business are. The retail investor sees these bear raids and bull runs are for what they are, insider dominated trading.

Volatility increases as the number of participants in a market decreases. Retail investors are sitting this out and the SEC and Congress are not helping, on one side is the SEC which has done little to create level playing fields in markets and Congress has distorted the markets with trillions of dollars of your money being committed to companies and industries that should not be getting free money. Insiders have polluted and corrupted every one of the bills that deal with economic stabilization, the latest outrage being provisions inserted into the auto failout bill that would provide a pay raise to federal judges and a provision that would let transit agencies off the hook for illegal SILO tax shelter tansactions.

On the business side, industries like American auto manufactures and airlines have done everything within their reach to tarnish their brands over the last 20 years and irrespective of whatever financial propping up they receive from Congress, the fact remains that their biggest obstacle to success over the long run are not credit markets or labor costs, it’s a lack of trust among consumers.

American cars and trucks are without a doubt competitive on quality benchmarks, every customer satisfaction and quality survey reveals this fact. Having had a wide range of these vehicles myself, I have no complaints about GM and Ford quality, in fact the GMC Denali that we owned at one point did not have a single issue that required service, beyond regular maintenance, and it was one of the best equipped and most comfortable vehicles we have ever owned.

If you look at the model lineup GM and Ford in particular you will see a strong portfolio of high mileage vehicles. Chevrolet offers 88 models (yeah that’s somewhat of a problem in itself) with an average fuel economy across the entire portfolio of 23mpg, while Toyota’s 55 models comes in at 21mpg. GM’s efforts on Flex-fuel (E85) have led the industry, 6% of their volume is now Flex-fuel vehicles (hybrids are 2% of Toyota’s shipments). GM alone has invested $750 million in development of the Volt, advancing state of the art not only in powertrain technology but also in battery technology.

What are the two biggest complaints that critics throw up on GM and Ford? They make crappy cars and the have not invested in fuel efficient cars and low emissions technology.

Even if GM survives (Ford is not in as bad a crisis and Chrysler simply won’t survive) the bigger challenge they face is that consumers don’t value their brand anymore. The same applies to the big airlines, while Southwest and JetBlue were cultivating their respective brands, UAL and Delta were doing just the opposite. Running new advertising, remaking the corporate logo, and self-flagellation among executives won’t change any of this.

Congress is in no better condition either, the public not only gives this Congress historically low approval ratings, they also have little confidence that Congress will be a constructive player in our current economic downturn.

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