Tom wrote an interesting piece about Fair Use and an alternative monetization model. In the comments he posted this and it’s something I fear he is spot on right about.
I’m afraid that the future is going to be a largely closed web and a web where the usefull information is going to be expensive and the preserve of the rich… and it will benefit the rich.
The cold hard fact is that eyeball monetization isn’t working broadly outside of search, as this piece in today’s Chronicle aptly points out.
To be really crystal clear, I don’t think this is about people expecting things for free, I do think we are witnessing the gasps and spasms of a dominant advertising model that is failing – display ads. For all the talk about behavioral targeting and pay-per-performance, the fact is that people buying advertising and people selling advertising are guilty of seldom looking beyond impressions.
Unlike television where you sample a market or in print where there’s a wink-and-a-nod that the numbers are good, online is pretty exact and up-to-the-minute. Most display ads are simply ineffective because of a failure to target a demographic or technographic, and as a consequence they are priced that way. It’s remnant advertising on a massive scale, and it shows with clickthrough rates that rarely break .45%.
I wish I could point to something as the future, but I just can’t.