Apple’s 45 Million iPhones in 2008

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster took a lot of heat back in June 2007 when he predicted, three weeks before Apple even began selling the iPhone, that the company would be shipping them at the rate of 45 million a year by 2009.

[From FORTUNE: Apple 2.0 Analyst: How Apple sells 45 million iPhones in 2009 «]

It’s not entirely outrageous but the handset market is super competitive and it’s certain that Apple’s leverage will diminish in the absence of another Jesus-phone, and 3G alone ain’t gonna be that. I’ve used my iPhone since last September and am generally pretty loyal to Apple products, but I’m lusting for the Nokia N95. I might even go back to a Blackberry.

Apple is clearly a player in the handset market but to go from where they are to 45 million is beyond aggressive (mind you, as I read this article, Munster was talking run rates and not absolute shipments.) The carriers clearly want this handset and the association with Apple, but the price points are pretty steep and with no subsidies they are capping their market.

Blackberry is the most serious threat to Apple’s ambitions, but they really phoned it in (no pun intended) with the Blackberry 9000. It’s basically the same ‘ol crappy BB with rounded corners and a pretty background image. This surely can’t be the best Blackberry can do, can it? And don’t call me Shirley.

Here’s why I wouldn’t buy another iPhone even though I generally like the one I have:

1) No copy/paste. It’s a small point but incredibly frustrating that Apple didn’t include this cuz it would have screwed up their UI.

2) Battery life. Keep that wifi turned off. In all fairness, most of these uber-handsets have crappy battery life.

3) No video from the camera. The camera is okay, but just okay.

4) Clunky email interface, slow as well. I do like the virtual keyboard much more than I would have thought.

5) It’s heavy and kinda large.

One final note, the SDK will be a big step in the right direction but I suspect that Steve Jobs is only going to go the full distance on openness while being dragged kicking and screaming along the way. I want apps on my iphone and it kinda pisses me off that I can’t have them right now.

4 thoughts on Apple’s 45 Million iPhones in 2008

  1. I’m switching between my N95 and Blackberry Pearl these days, and always feel a rush of affection when I go to the Pearl. Not a fan of Symbian, and the N95 is a pure video camera for me. If I can manage to update my firmware for the Pearl and get video going on that, I’ll be hard-pressed to turn to the N95 for anything. That’s a big if, though.

  2. I liked my Pearl but it’s hostility to my Mac host was always frustrating. It was playing around with your N95 that made me want to get one.

  3. Yeah, all my N95 enthusiast friends are Macheads.

    It’s a little embarrassing to admit the affection I have for my Pearl. It’s the first gadget I’ve ever had that improved my life significantly.

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