More on That Bubble 2.0 Topic

Posted on August 2, 2007
Filed Under web 2.0 |

Eric writes an interesting post about the Dvorak "we’re in a bubble and it’s gonna pop" dustup.

I have yet to see one piece that mentions “bubble 2.0? in a larger economic context. Scoble’s talking about how John’s got the wrong bubble. Marshall’s slappin’ John down. Lots of folks are piling on. And not one comment has been made about the housing market, sub-prime (and prime) loan problems, 75 dollar oil, a fed that claims to be still leaning toward tightening, private equity bubbles — nothing! Apparently, lesson #1 of “Bubble 2.0? is that the entire twitter-facebook-youtube-google driven mess lives in complete isolation.

He’s right. on all points:

  1. Web 2.0 companies are not dependent on access to debt markets so the earthquake that started with subprime that is being felt by the LBO guys does not impact them. You could drill into the minutae and find points of impact but the fact remains that most tech companies large and small are not dependent on material debt financing with the exception of equipment and facility financing for the larger companies.
  2. Web 2.0 companies are not dependent on logistics so oil prices don’t impact them (in a roundabout way it does because datacenters are dependent on electricity which is often generated from natural gas, but those markets are price regulated).
  3. Housing market meltdown not an issue for Web 2.0.
  4. Weak dollar negatively impacts companies that are reliant on outsourcing but they still come out ahead given the wage disparity. For companies that market to non-U.S. markets the weak dollar helps them.

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