2007 prediction

I’ve given this a lot of thought and can only make one prediction with confidence for the upcoming year, that we will witness a lot of high profile executive departures from mainline enterprise software companies to SaaS companies. It will be this flow of executives out of traditional software that will alarm SAP/Oracle/Microsoft/IBM/etc. and bring about a rethinking of their respective strategies in this area, along with an increased willingness to throw some of their existing businesses under the bus in the pursuit of SaaS strategies.

7 thoughts on 2007 prediction

  1. Why would SOMI wait? Is it a case of history repeating itself? Why include IBM which is making some plays in this area? Is it your view that those at the top are only paying lip service to SaaS?

  2. I guess I include IBM because they are ultimately a consulting company driving hardware and software sales. In retrospect I could probably take them off my list and it wouldn’t matter, but habits are hard to break… :)

  3. As you suggest, the SaaS saga is still unfolding. Right now we are at the stage where SaaS is displacing the old work horses in large and medium scale enterprises. But ultimately it will not be about replacing horse carriages by cars (although that will happen), but about making a Model T affordable to a whole new class of buyers. It will be about market expansion, not displacement. The market expansion will come from selling to networks of micro-firms.

    So while I agree with your prediction that high profile executive departures will force OldAppCos to take SaaS more seriously, they’ll only play the minimize-displacement game. I don’t see any of them gearing up to play the expansion game.

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