From the “Stating the Obvious” Files

The only thing interesting about this McKinsey study is that they attempt to quantify their predictions. More to the point of their core thesis, I don’t think they are telling TV executives anything they don’t already know. I’m no fan of television networks (although I do enjoy watching that Monk guy, and Modern Marvels hooks me every time), but I do acknowledge that they have some very smart people and they aren’t standing still. Advertisers are also not sticking with television as their sole strategy for reaching consumers, but they never have had just one strategy. It occurred to me that this last year was an inflection point for television, they moved away from DRM as the single flash point discussion whenever their online efforts came up, now they talk about selling episodes of sitcoms through ITMS, releasing additional unaired content web-only, deals with YouTube, Google video ads, have Myspace pages, and are increasingly co-opting web audiences into their programming. Maybe the skeptic in me is in decline but I really think that traditional media companies are starting to figure out how to deal with the web (the RIAA is still out in the weeds though).

Advertising Age – McKinsey Study Predicts Continuing Decline in TV Selling Power:

A study is about to give Madison Avenue a fresh pummeling: McKinsey & Co. is telling a host of major marketers that by 2010, traditional TV advertising will be one-third as effective as it was in 1990.

Software’s Sky is Not Falling

Last week on there was an op-ed piece by Guy Smith titled “Is Enterprise Software Doomed?“. Guy’s piece had a dramatic title but the conclusions reached in the piece were pretty sound, essentially that enterprise software wasn’t doomed but rather experiencing a rebirth of sorts at the hand of a number of interesting trends in the industry. The enterprise software bloggers group that I belong to, the Enterprise Irregulars, debated, debunked and agreed with a number of claims made in this piece and at some point Sadagopan suggested we write a group rebuttal to the sandhill piece. So a number of us did just that and put them online tonight.

The thing that is really interesting and exciting about this exercise is that, aside from the fact that it makes me a much better thinker, we are treading on the turf traditionally held by industry analysts. The Irregulars are a motley crew no doubt, but they are also well experienced in every aspect of enterprise software and have years of experience added on to the average analyst. This group is also not afraid to challenge assumptions and play the devil’s advocate, which makes for lively discussions in our google group. This co-op of bloggers in cutting a new path in the blogosphere, banding together not with economic or commercial ties but rather for the intellectual stimulation of it and to bring attention to an area of technology that doesn’t get a lot of attention in the rest of the blogosphere. | Management | Software’s Sky is Not Falling:

I belong to a group of bloggers called the Enterprise Irregulars. We analyze the software industry from a variety of perspectives, that of software company executives, services providers, consultants and investors. Our common denominator is many, many years of watching companies, technologies and customers come and go from fashion in our rapidly changing industry.

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Zoli’s Blog :: AOL Just Did the Unthinkable

Zoli has a bunch of links on the AOL gaffe (the most recent one) where they mistakenly put up a bunch of search history data for download. I know there are a lot of people that are genuinely concerned about privacy issues and the amount of data that search companies accumulate, but I have to ask myself whether or not I care that Google, AOL, or anyone else takes search history data and makes it available to third parties. I did consider the issue and I just don’t care. I realize that in AOL’s case the “anonymized” may have screen names, but even then so what? Maybe I’m just living the “you don’t have any privacy on the net so get over it” quote McNealy famously uttered a few years ago.

In the event anyone in interested to know what I looked at on the web today, here’s a spreadsheet that I dumped my browser history into. Knock yourself out. BTW, I’m in the market a new cell phone, if anyone has a good deal on the phones I looked at, e-mail me.


Office 2.0 Conference

Ismael is organizing a conference on Office 2.0 for Oct. 12-13. If you are at all interested in this topic this will be the place to be come October.

IT|Redux » Office 2.0 Conference Registration:

As promised last week, we are ready to receive early registrations for the first Office 2.0 Conference, which will take place in San Francisco on October 12-13. Our PayPal Business Account has been activated and we have setup a temporary website for registration.

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This is a fascinating project. A group of homing pigeon fanciers in Southern California developed, on their own, a “bird backpack” with pollution sensors, GPS, and GSM radio. This backpack is then strapped to the pigeons who fly around and collect data and transmit is back to base as SMS messages every 60 seconds. The data is then mashed up with Google Maps.


PigeonBlog enlists homing pigeons to participate in a grassroots scientific data gathering initiative designed to collect and distribute information about air quality conditions to the general public. Pigeons are equipped with custom-built miniature air pollution sensing devices enabled to send the collected localized information to an online server without delay. Pollution levels are visualized and plotted in real-time over Google’s mapping environment, thus allowing immediate access to the collected information to anyone with connection to the Internet.

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Plus SMS
Cognitive Dissonance
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