The only thing interesting about this McKinsey study is that they attempt to quantify their predictions. More to the point of their core thesis, I don’t think they are telling TV executives anything they don’t already know. I’m no fan of television networks (although I do enjoy watching that Monk guy, and Modern Marvels hooks me every time), but I do acknowledge that they have some very smart people and they aren’t standing still. Advertisers are also not sticking with television as their sole strategy for reaching consumers, but they never have had just one strategy. It occurred to me that this last year was an inflection point for television, they moved away from DRM as the single flash point discussion whenever their online efforts came up, now they talk about selling episodes of sitcoms through ITMS, releasing additional unaired content web-only, deals with YouTube, Google video ads, have Myspace pages, and are increasingly co-opting web audiences into their programming. Maybe the skeptic in me is in decline but I really think that traditional media companies are starting to figure out how to deal with the web (the RIAA is still out in the weeds though).
A study is about to give Madison Avenue a fresh pummeling: McKinsey & Co. is telling a host of major marketers that by 2010, traditional TV advertising will be one-third as effective as it was in 1990.