Gartner’s hype cycle series is out and it provides some interesting reading. The “web technologies” report in particular offered some surprises, such as RSS Enterprise being at the peak of hype… honestly, how many enterprises do you know that are talking about leveraging widespread RSS in their enterprise? A lot for sure, but not so much as to rise to the level that Gartner is suggesting. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that Gartner’s peak cycle is:
1) on the rise
2) hype peak
3) in the trough (of disillusionment)
4) climbing the slope
5) the plateau of productivity
With the peak cycle in mind, I suppose you could argue that web 2.0, RSS, semantic web, mashups, et. al. are at the peak of hype and preparing the slide into the trough. Historically, technologies in the trough tended to stay there for a while, off the top of my head I would say as much as 18 months, but in the case of many of these web technologies I am wondering if that phase is actually a lot shorter for the simple reason that the technology itself isn’t complex (generally speaking) and the implementation of it is pretty straightforward meaning that the gating factor is largely limited to the ability of enterprises to identify and deploy interesting use scenarios.
Also interesting is the Application Integration and Platform Middleware report. Take a look at the technologies in the “on the rise” category… largely a bunch of new names for old concepts.
Welcome to the Hype Cycle Special Report for 2006. This year, we assess nearly 2,000 technologies and trends across 80 IT topics, markets and industries to provide you with the most comprehensive assessment of technology maturity in the IT industry.